Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya • ISSN 2075-7999
peer-reviewed • open access journal


2019 Vol 12 Issue 64

Nasledov A.D., Miroshnikov S.A., Tkacheva L.O. Identification of prognostic markers of developmental delay in 6-year-olds

Full text in Russian: Наследов А.Д., Мирошников С.А., Ткачева Л.О. Идентификация прогнозных маркеров задержки психического развития 6-летних детей

Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

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This article is a continuation of our previous publications on the pages of this journal, containing the results of the study of 4- and 5-years-old children development. In the current article we analyze the structure of the predictive markers for 6-year-olds, which most accurately predict the diagnosis Norm or developmental delay (DD). The study was conducted on a sample of 628 children (532 – "Norm", 96 – DD). As before, discriminant and factor analysis were used to identify predictive markers, then the reliability of the selected factors-scales were checked, with the final formation of the predictive model with structural equation modeling (SEM). The set of obtained predictors differs significantly from those for 4 - and 5-year-olds and includes the following components (in descending order of their contribution to the prediction): "Arbitrary attention", "Counting skills", "Logical reasoning", "Motor skills", "General awareness". The scales corresponding to these components together with age form a common scale that allows the identification of a "risk group" with a high probability of DD. As a result of standardization, test norms for this General scale have been developed, which demonstrates that the sensitivity of the prediction of DD is 88.5%, the specificity of the prediction of Norm is 94.5%. In conclusion, it is pointed out that the sensitivity of the prediction for 6-year-olds is slightly lower than that for 4-and 5-year-olds, which, apparently, is associated with the effect of psycho-correction. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the prediction is sufficient enough to use the developed norms to identify quickly the "risk group" for further differential diagnosis.

Keywords: prognostic markers, developmental delay, norm, 6-year-old children, screening, SEM, factor structure of abilities

The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 17-06-00989-OGN.


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Received 19 May 2019. Date of publication: 14 April 2019.

About author

Nasledov Andrey D., Ph.D, Faculty of Psychology, Saint Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya nab., 7/9, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Miroshnikov Sergey A., Ph.D, Director, Longitude Ltd, Grajdansky prospect, 83-4, 195257, St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Tkacheva Liubov.O., Ph.D, Faculty of Psychology, Saint Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya nab., 7/9, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Nasledov A.D., Miroshnikov S.A., Tkacheva L.O. Identification of prognostic markers of developmental delay in 6-year-olds. Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 64, p. 1. (in Russian, abstr. in English).

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